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Ураган Winston, очень необычный, прошел мимо Тонги дважды

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1

Во-первых, он двигался с юга на север, потом развернулся. Во-вторых, он прошел в районе Вавау дважды.

http://s3.uploads.ru/t/EgSPf.gif

(это одно из последних обновлений прогноза, перед тем, как он прошел мимо Вавау во второй раз. Черные линии со стрелками - это прошедший фактический путь, а красные - прогнозный). На данный момент (20 февраля) он на Фиджи в состоянии кат.5).

Публикую эти новости здесь для сохранения для истории. Читайте с оригинальных ссылок - там фотки и вставки.

1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap … -scenario/

Catastrophic Cyclone Winston bears down on Fiji’s main island in worst case scenario

A destructive tropical cyclone is bearing down on Fiji with winds approaching 150 mph and an intensity rating that is nearly off the charts. Tropical Cyclone Winston is the worst case scenario for Fiji — a Category 5 that is expected to make direct landfall on the most populous island, home to the capital city of Suva.

Winston took an incredibly unusual path to get to where it is right now — winding through the South Pacific and crossing over a single island twice. The cyclone passed Tonga’s island of Vava’u once earlier this week as a category 2, and then strengthened, turned and passed over the same islands again as a category 4. Australia’s ABC News reports that Vava’u fared better than expected as Cyclone Winston passed by.

Since then, Winston grew even stronger, exploding into a category 5 cyclone on the Australia scale, with 145 mph winds — the equivalent of a strong category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. The Fiji Meteorological Service estimates that Winston’s wind gusts are 295 kilometers per hour, or around 180 mph.

In regions of the world where direct observations, like hurricane hunters, are not available, satellite estimates are used to ascertain the intensity of the cyclone. This method is called the Dvorak technique. After all the elements of the storm are analyzed — things like cloud cover, the eye, banding and shear — a final Dvorak number is given on a scale from one to eight. On Friday, Winston was given an eight.

This would suggest the cyclone is much stronger than the current 145 mph wind speed estimate, and that it could be harboring wind speeds up to 190 mph.

Though Fiji is prone to tropical weather in the South Pacific, the main island of Viti Levu doesn’t necessarily have a history plagued with disastrous cyclones.

Looking back through the records, which are admittedly short, the last time a tropical cyclone of this strength came this close to Fiji’s most populous island was 2012, when Cyclone Evan passed just to the west of the island as a Category 4 on the Australian scale. Before that, we have to look to 1990, when Cyclone Sina passed to the south as a Category 3 on the Australian scale.

But no cyclone of this severity has made direct landfall on the island, which is what Winston is expected to do. In fact, the strongest cyclone to make direct landfall on the island did so over 30 years ago: Nigel in 1985, with 120 mph winds.

A false sense of security may be working against preparation efforts on the island of Viti Levu. “Most of the people in Suva are under the misapprehension that Suva doesn’t get cyclones — that it’s only the north and the west of the country that seems to get them and the ones that come past Suva are weak and insipid,” Fiji Meteorologist Neville Koop told Australia’s ABC News

“This is the exception to that — it’s probably one of the strongest cyclones to affect the capital in the last decade or two,” he added.

2) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-19/f … ce/7185662

Fiji braces for cyclone Winston after Tonga hit twice

Photo: A NASA satellite image of cyclone Winston near Tonga in the Pacific Ocean on February 17 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-19/winston/7185712

Fiji's capital is bracing for cyclone Winston, after the storm hit Tonga's northern islands twice in a week.
Key points:
Cyclone Winston passes Tonga for second time in a week
Authorities say minimal damage and most services restored
Category four storm now heading towards Fiji
Winston expected to pass Suva on Sunday morning

The cyclone passed by Tonga's Vava'u as a category two storm earlier this week, before turning and strengthening to pass the same island group as a category four.

Tonga's National Emergency Management Office has confirmed Vava'u fared better than expected as Cyclone Winston passed by.

Director Leveni Aho said some houses had been damaged but the main area of concern was the loss of food crops.

"They lost about 10 houses, and partial damage to another 200 houses," he said.

"But the main damage is in the agricultural sector - to fruit crops as well as root crops.

"In general, I think we were expecting a lot worse than what we got now, but I think the wind had less impact than what we anticipated."

Mr Aho said some of the 2,500 people who were evacuated remain in shelters, but power has been restored to the island and the airport has reopened.

He said rough seas meant the inter-island ferry services were unlikely to resume until Sunday or Monday.

"Hopefully it will get out of our water for now and hopefully it won't come back again," he said.

Mark Belvedere, the owner of the Treasure Island Resort in Vava'u, said there had been minimal damage, but a lot of surprise by the cyclone's return.

"I've lived in the tropics all my life and this is the first time I've been hit by the same cyclone twice," he said.

"It's just unbelievable."

Cyclone Winston was tracking towards Fiji, and was expected to pass over the Lau group of islands over the weekend, bringing significant winds and rains to parts of Fiji.

Meteorologist Neville Koop said Winston was expected to pass to the south of the capital Suva on Sunday.

"Most of the people in Suva are under the misapprehension that Suva doesn't get cyclones - that it's only the north and the west of the country that seems to get them and the ones that come past Suva are weak and insipid," he said.

"This is the exception to that - it's probably one of the strongest cyclones to affect the capital in the last decade or two."

2

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-paci … y-reported

- Там есть видео - с Фиджи.


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