Каждый год метеорологическое агенство делает предсказания на ближайший "сезон циклонов" (ноябрь-март). И вот что на этот год.  Хотя в ноябре или марте ураганы маловероятны, а если и будут, то не сильные. Самая высокая вероятность январь-февраль. Подробности читайте ниже.

One to two Tropical Cyclones predicted for coming season

архивированно сюда: https://archive.md/eMjDZ оригинальный адрес: https://matangitonga.to/2022/10/29/one- … ing-season

At least one to two Tropical Cyclones (TC) are predicted to cross Tonga waters during the 2022-2023 cyclone season with a high chance that one will be severe, according to Tonga Meteorology Services cyclone outlook report, on 24 October.

Historical records also indicate that Tonga could expect at least one cyclone and at most three cyclones to occur with a moderate to high chance (60%) of at least one Severe Tropical Cyclone occurring.

The cyclones are expected to mostly come from the West and North-West or from the direction of Fiji and the rest from the North, East, and North-East.

Tonga Met said the 2022-2023 Tropical Cyclone Season is likely to be largely influenced by La Nina conditions, which may bring above average rainfall to all of Tonga.

For the South West Pacific Region, around five to seven named tropical cyclones are expected with up to one to four reaching Category 3 to 5.

Current dynamics indicated that the First Tropical Cyclone activity for this season in the South West Pacific region could start from around early to mid-December 2022 to January 2023.

The official 2022 / 2023 TC Season will begin on 1 November 2022 and will officially end on 30 April 2023.

Tonga Met advised the public to start preparing and fix shutters and trim trees near the house in case of a severe event.

“All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2022-2023 Tropical Cyclone Season and take heed of tropical cyclone alerts, warnings and advisories seriously whenever it is issued to reduce the negative effects on life and property”.

“All communities are urged to be vigilant and follow forecast information provided by the Meteorology Services during the season. An update outlook will be issued at the end of January 2023.

Likey Sector Impacts during the 2022-2023 Tropical Cyclone Season

Agriculture
Although there is less likelihood of Cyclone occurrence than usual, it is the cyclone season so strong wind events will happen from time to time and crops prone to wind damage like Banana, Papaya and Breadfruit will be affected. At the same time, La Nina conditions will bring above average rainfall which will good for planting higher rainfall (big leaf plants) crops such as Kava, Taro, Banana and Kape. Weed management will be a must this season in order to get a good harvest.
Water
Water surplus during this season is to be expected. Therefore, rain water should be collected and harvested this season as much as possible to be used when the rainy season ends around April 2023. Clean roofs and replace guttering’s.
Health
Higher risk of water contamination related diseases occurring due to above average rainfall expected and flooding of low-lying areas. Mosquitoes will be a problem from the months of December to February due to higher rainfall and higher humidity so mosquito management will be key to prevent mosquito transmitted disease like dengue.
Infrastructure
There is a moderate to high chance of one severe cyclone happening this season, so the public are advised to fix shutters and trim trees near the house just in case we get a severe event.
Tourism
Moderate to High risk for Tourism activities due to moderate to high chance of a severe cyclone occurring.
Fisheries
Ocean nutrients will be abundant due to La Nina conditions so expect tuna fisheries to be good as well as trolleying. Expect low to moderate coral bleaching or algae blooms.
Utilities
Moderate to high risk of Communications, Water and Power utilities failures due to tropical cyclone activity. But high risk of flooding related problems.
Transport
Moderate to high risk of above than normal cancellations to ferry and aircraft
operations due to stronger winds and tropical cyclone activity. Higher risk road and drainage flooding related problems due to higher expectation of above average rainfall.